Saratoga and Del Mar Complete Their 2008 Race Meets

Translation: The 25th Annual Breeders' Cup is only seven weeks away

A Column by Steve Davidowitz
September 4, 2008

The classy Saratoga and Del Mar race meets are in the books and the 25th annual Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita is coming into view. This year the Breeders' Cup is going to be a two-day event for the second year in succession, with a few more races than last year.

Along with several $100,000 to $200,000 supporting stakes on both Breeders' Cup days, the full menu of 14 Breeders' Cup races - worth an aggregate $25.5 million - are listed below:

(ST) = synthetic track

Santa Anita Park, Friday, October 24th
A Breeders' Cup Day for Fillies and Mares

• * The $1 million Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, 7 furlongs (ST) for fillies and mares 3 years old and up.
• * The $1 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, one mile on the turf for 2-year-old fillies.
• * The Gr. 1 $2 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, 1 1/16 miles (ST) for 2-year-old fillies.
• * The Gr. 1 $2 million Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic (formerly called the Breeders' Cup Distaff), 1 1/8 miles (ST) for fillies and mares 3 years old and up.
• * The Gr. 1 $2 million Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf, 1 1/4 miles on the turf for fillies and mares 3 years olds and up.

Santa Anita Park, Saturday, October 25th

• * The $500,000 Breeders' Cup Marathon, 1 1/2 miles (ST) for 3-year-olds and up.
• * The $1 million Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint, 6 1/2 furlongs on the turf for 3-year-olds and up.
• * The $1 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, one mile on the turf for 2-year-olds.
• * The $1 million Breeders' Cup 'Dirt' Mile, one mile (ST) for 3-year-olds and up.
• * The Gr. 1 $2 million Breeders' Cup Mile, one mile on the turf for 3-year-olds and up.
• * The Gr. 1 $2 million Breeders' Cup Sprint, 6 furlongs (ST) for 3-year-olds and up.
• * The Gr. 1 $2 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile, 1 1/16 miles (ST) for 2-year-olds.
• * The Gr. 1 $3 million Breeders' Cup Turf, 1 1/2 miles on the turf for 3-year-olds and up.
• * The Gr. 1 $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic, 1 1/4 miles (ST) for 3-year-olds and up.

While these Breeders' Cup races provide an annual focal point for so many top-class horses and late developing contenders, horseplayers will also get dozens of opportunities to see the best of them in action beginning this weekend at Woodbine in Canada and in stakes in Great Britain, Germany and France. Many more Breeders' Cup prospects will run at Belmont Park and Turfway Park during the next few weeks, while more contenders and potential contenders will run in graded stakes at Keeneland and during Santa Anita's Oak Tree race meet in late September and early October.

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To be sure, we probably saw a few Breeders' Cup contenders in the final weekend of graded stakes at Saratoga and Del Mar on the last days of August and the first days of September. Here are my notes on the most important of these events.

Saratoga Racecourse, Saturday, August 30th

• * The Gr. 1 $500,000 Woodward Stakes, 1 1/8 miles for 3-year-olds and up.
• Fractional Splits: :22.89 :46.20 1:09.61 1:35.33 1:49.34 - Fast G1 splits with a desperately slow final furlong in 14.01 that still produced a legit G1 Beyer Speed Figure.
• Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 112 - As stated, a very good G1 rating despite the slow last furlong.

Curlin, bet confidently by the crowd down to 35 cents on the dollar, is a top-class racehorse who has proven his ability in many forums, including the 2007 Breeders' Cup Classic, the 2008 Dubai World Cup and even in defeat to the filly Rags to Riches in a thrilling 2007 Belmont Stakes. Curlin won this race in workmanlike fashion, chasing and catching a fast front-runner, Past the Point, after being forced wide by Divine Park on the first turn. But his final furlong was so slow, it made me think that he has reached his natural limit and will be quite vulnerable against a truly top horse from Europe or perhaps Big Brown should his connections change their minds and run in the Breeders' Cup Classic. It even is possible that the race exposed a lurking physical problem that will surface during the next several weeks and/or end his career. That is pure speculation, of course, but that final furlong was so slow it was almost painful to watch.

Past the Point was a very strong second and may be worth following. Divine Park, the second choice, drifted out quite a bit, forcing Curlin wide and causing some crowding, but in the end he simply faded badly to finish seventh a long distance behind the top two. If he is 100 percent healthy, Divine Park might need one-turn races for his best.

• * The Gr. 1 $250,000 Forego Handicap, 7 furlongs for 3-year-olds and up.
• Fractional Splits: :22.53 :44.61 1:08.49 1:21.55 - G1 splits with a slightly slower last furlong.
• Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 108 - Slightly below a true G1 rating, but close enough.

First Defence has always run well on this track, including his sharp second to Hard Spun in the King's Bishop at this distance on Travers Day in 2007. After recently going to Hall of Fame trainer Bobby Frankel, this colt was ready to fire his very best. In the race itself, First Defence dueled for the lead with Eternal Star before edging clear to win by a widening 6 3/4 lengths over a tight five-horse pack battling for second through sixth, separated by less than a full length (Eternal Star finished fourth).

Lucky Island, bet down to a ridiculously low 75 cents on the dollar based on his current good form, did little after a very rough trip, finishing sixth in the five-horse group competing for second money. I would throw the race out and submit that he deserves another chance to prove he ranks among the top Breeders' Cup Sprint contenders (remember, the top American-based sprinter, Benny the Bull, was recently retired due to an injury).

Saratoga Racecourse, Sunday, August 31st

• * The Gr. 1 $250,000 Spinaway Stakes, 7 furlongs for 2-year-old fillies.
• Fractional Splits: :22.18 :45.46 1:11.03 1:25.23 - Par splits for the level for the first half-mile, but a very slow last three furlongs clocked in 39.77 and a final furlong in 14.20, even below the level usually associated with maidens, not graded stakes winners.
• Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 77 - Hard to believe this was a G1 race.

Mani Bhavan, winner of the Adirondack Stakes in mid-meet, defeated Jardin, winner of the opening day Schuylerville, in one of the slowest G1 races of modern times. Conclusion: None of the top 2-year-old fillies who ran in Saratoga's three graded stakes this summer will be major contenders in serious G1 races later in the year - not unless they improve substantially, or the whole division is completely devoid of true G1 fillies. (On the Spinaway card, the maiden winner Devotee looked stronger and is bred to go longer, so there is hope.)

Saratoga Racecourse, Monday, September 1st

* The Gr. 1 $250,000 Hopeful Stakes, 7 furlongs for 2-year-olds.

Fractional Splits: :22.68 :45.17 1:10.11 1:23.40 - Slightly below par splits for the level through the six furlongs with a final furlong clocked in 13.29, borderline acceptable for the G3 level, not a G1, but there also were some unusual things that occurred during the running.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 84 - Below the G3 level, never mind a G1.

Vineyard Haven set the pace and held well to the wire for his victory under the meet's leading rider Alan Garcia, who also won the Spinaway with a front running trip the day before. Highly regarded maiden winner Munnings stumbled badly at the start and was forced out of his game but still finished third. Cribnote was close to the pace and seemed ready to take the lead but bolted badly on the final turn to drop back to sixth before he straightened out for the final furlong and reclaimed second. Break Water Edison was close to the leader for six furlongs but tired to fourth in the final 220 yards as if he might have bled.

No question in my mind that the second- and third-place finishers showed more talent than the front running winner. Also, Desert Party had a very rough trip while finishing sixth and deserves another chance against the same caliber.

Del Mar Race Course, Saturday, August 30th

* The Gr. 2 $200,000 Palomar Handicap, 1 1/16 miles on the turf for fillies and mares 3 years old and up.

Fractional Splits: :23.90 :47.53 1:11.12 1:34.92 1:40.64 - Steady, relatively even, somewhat below par splits with an above par final burst of speed by the winner and the two who dead heated for second half a length behind the winner.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 96 - A rating that reflected the slightly below par group of horses that were in this race.

The 8-5 betting favorite Vacare would have been 1-5 if she brought her 2007 form into this race, but she was still able to fire the winning rally while wide against a borderline G3 group in this G2 race. Kris' Sis and Gotta Have Her finished in a dead heat for second. In fact, the top five finishers all rallied from back in the pack as front running Moujane tired in the drive to finish sixth.

Del Mar Race Course, Sunday, August 31st

* The Gr. 2 $350,000 Del Mar Derby, 1 1/8 miles on the turf for 3-year-olds.

Fractional Splits: :23.93 :47.26 1:11.37 1:34.59 1:46.68 - Below par splits through six furlongs with an above par final three furlongs. Overall, slightly below par for the class level.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 98 - About three lengths below par for a G2 race, but the last three furlongs after a below par pace made the race better than the numerical rating.

Madeo got the jump on the nationally ranked, odds-on favorite Gio Ponti entering the stretch to take the race to the game front-runner Tangled Tango, who responded well when challenged in the upper stretch. All three continued to go well in the final 1/16 miles as did fourth-place finisher Nownownow, while the two horses that chased front running Tangled Tango - Tiz West and Sky Cape - threw in the towel when the real race began. The Beyer Figure and the pace may have been below a G2 level, but the competition was quite intense and that may have been more important than the numbers.

Del Mar Race Course, Monday, September 1st

* The Gr. 1 $250,000 Del Mar Debutante, 7 furlongs for 2-year-old fillies.

Fractional Splits: :22.59 :45.07 1:09.65 1:22.50 - Par splits for half a mile followed by a deceptively slow three furlongs, which were counterfeited by the winner's very wide, strong rally from last to first with speed to spare.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 87 - A rating well below the level, but again the whirlwind finish by the winner was no illusion and her actual final splits were much faster after a very slow start.

Stardom Bound, pointed out as likely to live up to her name in a column after her unlucky career debut on July 20, was second in the Sorrento Stakes on July 18 and followed the same slow-to-begin script in this race. After settling into last for the run on the backstretch, Stardom Bound swooped by the whole field on the far outside to win by more than five lengths going away. Forget the Beyer Figure. This was a Grade 1 performance by a Grade 1 filly who, if handled with patience, could develop into a superstar. Stardom Bound reminds me of Stevie Wonderboy, the last-to first winner of the 2005 Del Mar Futurity and Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

Palacio de Amor was second at 47-1 after setting the pace from the inside in a positive performance, while 28-1 shot Will O Way closed some ground between horses for an okay third. Evita Argentina raced in spots and may improve with more maturity.

As for the Gr. 1 $250,000 Del Mar Juvenile at 7 furlongs for male juveniles, scheduled for Del Mar's closing day on Wednesday, September 3rd, my impressions will be included in next week's column.

Added notes: As hinted at in my opening commentary, there will be several dozen graded stakes offered as Breeders' Cup previews and prep races from coast to coast and in Europe during the next four weeks. I would strongly urge players to watch as many of these races as possible, on ESPN, ESPN2 and via the track-sponsored websites that provide such replays. For instance, the NYRA website includes replays for all of its graded stakes

Steve Davidowitz has written two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing---Betting Thoroughbreds and The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing. He also is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus and his columns appear in the Bodog Racebook each week.